Future of BRICS - the World is not Flat!

18 December 2013

Taylor & Francis Online journal for

The International Affairs Forum

The twenty-first century has begun with much euphoria around the world becoming “flat” and the rise of developing world economies. In the shifting global power balance, how is the BRICS bloc (comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and now also South Africa) going to fare?

First and foremost, as most experts realize today, BRICS is not really a bloc. These are some oddball nations put together in one clubbing, initially by a whizz kid at Goldman Sachs. The countries seem to have little in common other than concurrent economic resurgence. While India and Russia have been traditional allies, China characteristically has been at loggerheads with both. Brazil is a total outsider that has more interdependence on the Americas than any nation in Asia. South Africa is just a small add on and several other countries have expressed an interest in joining it too. To their credit the BRICS countries are excited about their very own bloc and also making efforts to come together and hold summits, etc., but it is not really a coalition bound together by common interests like the EU.

If we look at the biggest player in this bloc, China, the fragility of the coalition becomes obvious. Already the world’s second largest economy, this heady nation’s ambitions are far beyond that of the emerging bloc. It is vying for the number one global position and sees the US as its core competition. However, having no genuine allies other than some rogue nations like North Korea, Sudan, Iran, Pakistan, etc., it is happy to play the tune and officially be a part of the group. For instance, as the bloc discusses possibility of a $100 billion currency stabilizing fund, China wants a bigger say since it might be a large contributor to it. Likewise on every other matter, China really needs to have things its way. Being the largest member of the BRICS bloc, with a whopping GDP of $8 trillion, it sees no reason to be otherwise. So the biggest growth driver of the BRICS is somewhat of an outsider looking in.

But even if the BRICS could evolve into some sort of a pan emerging world bloc, where does it stand today and what are the chinks in its armor. There are essentially three legs on which a nation stands – its economy, political system, and human rights status; let us assess the BRICS along these lines.

So far the BRICS story is their economic success story and so, what really is the crux of it? To an extent the rise of emerging economies is nothing more than a turn to good old market reforms. China and Russia were the communist nations and India, aligned with the USSR bloc, also largely socialist. Post fall of communism in the late 1970s all these economies started liberalizing. In the 1980s and 1990s, a changeover to market centric economies turned their fortunes around. China particularly has carved out a lion’s share for itself by capitalizing on low-cost exports which it can produce in its mile-long factories with bonded labor that it has perfect control over. Although becoming the factory of the world does come with a price tag and all its cities are highly polluted. But China has struck the right balance in its mixed economy model, with the state taking the lead in two areas where the private sector usually lags behind – infrastructure and agriculture. With a first world infrastructure and a pro industry Capitalist Communist party in control, there is no stopping China.

India, on the other hand, has a relatively more transparent business environment and the most well-regulated markets anywhere in the developing world but poor infrastructure and public opposition to land for industries tend to drag it down. To attain its potential, India must get past these two barriers. Russia has overcome the chaos of the Perestroika era and banking on its natural oil and gas resource, it is doing well. However, its business environment is considered among the least favorable or transparent. Brazil again has infrastructure problems but continues to grow. Market-led growth is also true of several other economies like Vietnam, Turkey, etc. The only recent nation to stumble has been Venezuela which again tried a Chavez style brand of socialism which did not work. But most nations have learnt to veer away from this path. 

Overall, high inflation rates are a big concern for all these economies which affect the common man the most but saving rates tend to be high. Lack of proper infrastructure and public services seems to be a cause of concern from the point of business as well as people’s day-to-day lives.

In terms of political systems, most of the world has come to understand that a switch over to democracy does not necessarily work in the developing world. It often leads to power in the hands of fundamentalist and factional forces and even destabilizes countries. For a long time it was also believed that democracy is an essential pre-requisite to free markets but that hypothesis has been disproved amply. Regardless of what model they follow, political stability and continuity seem more critical for progress. For instance, in political terms, China and India are the polar opposites but both stable in their own ways which seems to work in their favor. In China, the ruling CPC is a force to reckon with and what it says goes – so decision-making and execution is fast. India is the most long-standing and stable of democracies in the emerging world. While grappling with many problems, it has among the best politicians in the developing world that are committed to the nation’s progress and unity. Both the nations score high on political stability. Russia on the other hand is largely a one man show and what after Putin remains a question mark. Brazil’s democracy seems to have stabilized with power changing hands peacefully for several terms now. So long as it does not go back to the era of army coups, it will perhaps continue to do well. Outside the BRICS too several countries that are politically stable like Vietnam are growing. On the other hand, the Middle East which has undergone some sort of upheaval, dubbed as a “spring,” has led to economic ruin for many and it is not clear what they have gained politically either. Political stability coupled with market reforms seems to be the new mantra for the developing world.

The BRICS’ weakest point is their track record on human rights. The BRICS bloc continues to be backward on most soft parameters. Crimes against women are rampant (except for China) and corruption high in all of them. Illegal detention, custodial tortures, and “might is right” sort of law enforcement are characteristic of the entire BRICS world. The key criticism of the emerging world is that its economic progress is not matched by progress on other soft social parameters. 

In the West the economic growth story was matched by or actually preceded by cultural, social, and political renaissance which laid the foundation of a modern progressive society. Having just recently emerged out of economic impoverishment, the developing world is still celebrating its new found wealth and is yet to start paying attention to these important issues.

The BRICS’ summit still seems like a showcasing event rather than an active coalition or introspective exercise. To assume leadership, the bloc could not be focusing on economy alone and should start addressing its problems of overpopulation, fresh water shortage, sanitation, women’s status, and human rights. The foundation of all sustainable growth is a just and progressive society. The BRICS are yet to lay bricks in that foundation. Most of them are aware of all these problems but are at a loss as to how to solve them. But unless they start discussing and applying themselves to it, their progress will remain lopsided. So, the world is not quite flat, at least not on this most critical count.

With a resurgence of the western economies, doubts are being cast on the BRICS’ potential but that is not true. There are huge labor and material cost differences in the world and in an era of free trade, leveling out is inevitable. So long as the BRICS remain politically stable and keep following market reforms, there is no turning back. Maybe they will not take over the world but surely power is going to be more evenly distributed. On all issues today, the developing world has a say and even the recent Forbes most influential people’s list has a fair mix of leaders from round the globe with Putin actually at the top, ahead of the US president. All this is emblematic of the changing global power structure, with the world becoming truly round which perhaps sounds more harmonious than a flat world anyway!

Overpopulation - the Forgotten Question

 

International Affairs Forum
 

August 2013

 

Even as the world population day approaches on 11 July 2013, the sea of humanity keeps expanding and 7 billion is an astounding number already. Driving many other species into extinction, mankind itself is at risk due to the bludgeoning numbers and lack of resources to support the same. Technological advancements in agriculture and medicine arrested the natural albeit painful processes of population control through famines, plagues and other diseases. But having extracted the world out of one kind of misery, it is yet sinking into another – that of overpopulation. It took mankind millennia to reach 1 billion in 1804 and more than another century to double by 1927. But in the age of speed that we live in, a billion is added almost every 13 – 14 years. Clearly natural resources as well as national provisions could not keep pace with such a calamitous increase in numbers and needs to be dealt with.

Defying the anthropological precept that the fittest breed the most, human population explosion is at the poorest end – in the developing nations particularly among the rural poor. In the developed world population is in decline actually creating other kinds of challenges like a large ageing and dependent strata but it is relatively easier to handle. If we look at rural households in the developing nations, population gallops on - children are seen as extra hands on the farm living space is not a constraint and people generally lead a destitute life. In such circumstances, they don’t care to plan their families or worry about children’s future which is expected to be the same as theirs. As urbanization takes a hold, living spaces are constrained as well as cost of living high but there is ample scope for employment opportunities. People start focusing on children’s education and have hopes for their future. With that they also start planning their families and 1 – 2 child families become the norm. So urbanization itself acts as a natural leveler. In the better off sections as also seen in the West, women start working and bigger families with many children comes in the way as they find it difficult to balance work pressure with home demands. Urbanization and modernization has also led to nuclear families such that natural child support systems are weakened considerably. These factors work as deterrents to having too many children.

Accounting for 37% of the world’s population, India and China remain the biggest culprits in the overpopulation game. Africa, though poorer is actually sparsely populated with population density lower than even Europe and the whole continent population barely adds up to a billion. Traditionally Asia has been the most populated continent and that is where the most efforts are required. At the extreme end of population control measures is China’s enforced one child policy where people are not allowed to have more than one child. This has been criticized on various counts primarily on its apparent interference with people’s freedom and choice. But being able to breed at will without the where-withal to provide for children may not be the right use of freedom either. The policy is also criticized for skewed sex ratio but to put figures to it, China’s sex ratio is 1.13 as compared to 1.12 for India – so both are similar and well over the world average of 1.07. Skewed sex ratio is not a result of population control programs but a deeply ingrained socio cultural ill that needs to be tackled through education and reforms. Rather, prosperity and education are likely to impact it more which indeed is better enabled if the population is limited.

Overpopulation compounds problems like poverty, illiteracy, inequality and violence. It also has put enormous burden on natural resources particularly water. It is often alleged that a rich nation like the US uses lot more resources than say the developing world. While they may leave a larger carbon footprint behind, consumption has its lifestyle benefits for the populace and so long as the nation is able to afford it, it is a lesser problem. But if one sees a developing nation, people do not have the means to live even a basic lifestyle and often live in congestion, filth and squalor. Lack of access to basic amenities like water, sanitation and exposure to diseases define the deprived existence of vast tracts of population which is ill able to afford such bludgeoning numbers. Also lack of basic infrastructure like a drainage system creates a sewage crisis that contaminates both soil and water.

While further population growth trends have been predicted and revised, somewhere it is assumed to be a natural statistical phenomenon with no need to actively check it. Just as food availability and medicines altered human life expectancy, we need to alter the explosion in population through scientific measures as well as social innovations and awareness programs. It can’t just be left to some sort of presumably ‘natural’ automatic sort of means. Given the proclivity of the poorest to breed more, poverty, deprivation and inequality will keep rising as also the stress on natural resources. It is debatable whether China’s one child policy is really such a draconian measure as it is made out to be. It clearly has been successful in checking its explosion. In countries where infant and child mortality and malnutrition is high as well as living conditions abysmal and dirty, producing unlimited number of kids into that environment is just as draconian, if not more. However all states may not wish to go the ‘China way’ but clearly there is a case to wake up and invest heavily in population control measures. If not coercive but at least persuasive campaigns and incentives based schemes need to be launched in an intense drive. The world population day could mark the beginning of such a trend in the developing world.

It is also time forums like the BRICS summit should get out of the nouveau riche zone of showcasing economic numbers and start facing up to these critical issues that affect this part of the world so deeply. Overpopulation is not a question that can be ignored any longer.

An Interview on Water Issues with IA - Forum

International Affairs Forum,

1 May 2013

International Affairs Forum: A recent report that McKinsey & Company helped to write predicted that India would need to double its water-generation capacity by the year 2030 to meet the demands of its growing population. A separate analysis concluded that groundwater supplies in many of India’s cities —including Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Chennai — are declining at such a rapid rate that they may run dry within a few years. What have been the difficulties and challenges in effectively managing water resources in rural as well as urban areas?

Anuradha Kataria: With unchecked population growth, the per capita availability of water is falling and declined by 15% in just the last decade.

The chief culprit is irrigation which uses up 80% of India’s fresh water supply. The government thus far has been preoccupied with increasing food production while the water issues stay neglected. The policy makers are yet to connect the dots between falling water supply and future food shortages. Some states have initiated reforms in cropping pattern, micro irrigation etc. which help improve water use efficiency by up to 35%. But many of these programs are hard to implement given the nature of small scattered farms which continue to rely on rudimentary practices. Larger cooperative farms may help serve the cause better but there are no substantial reforms or restructuring in the agriculture sector along these lines. The green revolution helped India improve its food yield - perhaps now it needs a blue revolution to bring about efficient use of its most precious resource - water.

In the urban areas, cities dump their human and industrial waste largely untreated into the rivers and streams making their waters unfit for drinking or even washing. This increases their reliance on ground water and the table is falling at an alarming rate. Urban planning and infrastructure has simply not kept pace with the economic growth.

It is not as if solutions to these problems are unknown but the political will and focus on water is lacking and is the key stumbling block.


IA-Forum: What impacts have water issues had on India’s development? Health issues?

Ms. Kataria: India grapples with a host of problems. In the federal structure, the States have authority over water projects and there are a lot of interstate conflicts on water sharing of rivers. Most dam projects have run into trouble with the activists. The drought prone areas tend to witness a lot of farmers’ suicides. Water pollution is another issue - contaminated rivers and ground water are a source of water borne diseases of which diarrhea alone claims 1600 children’s lives daily. Outbreaks of cholera, dysentery etc. are common among millions living on the banks of polluted rivers like the Ganges. All these problems affect the poorest sections of the society the most further worsening the already inequitable development.

Expected water scarcity coupled with food shortages and inter-state conflicts could potentially affect India’s stability in the next 10– 15 years.


IA-Forum: What steps are being taken to improve India’s water supplies and quality of water? (in rural as well as urban areas)?

Ms. Kataria: Some attention has been paid to augmenting urban and rural water supply since 2000, particularly in collaboration with companies from Japan, Germany etc. In the urban areas, Public private partnerships have focused on treatment facilities as well as reduction of Non revenue water in the form of water leakages or unbilled usage. A water desalination plant too has been setup with proposal for more in the coastal areas.
In rural India some of the World Bank aided watershed management projects have borne moderate results. They focus on restoring the ecological balance between soil, water and vegetation through participative community based initiatives.

While communal and even individual access to water supply has improved in urban and rural areas, water quality remains a cause for concern. Not much is being done about it and the vast sums allocated have either been wasted in poorly planned haphazard projects or lost to corruption.


IA-Forum: What effect has India’s current five year plan had on business investment for water supply and sanitation?

Ms. Kataria: India has been increasing its budget outlay for water resources. Over $1.1 trillion has been allocated towards the same in the current five year plan. Consistent efforts have improved access to water supply in both urban and rural areas. With hue and cry over India’s putrid rivers, some attention is also being paid to sewage treatment plants and even experimentation with waste to energy projects. But these ideas are yet to take off and efforts thus far to clean up rivers like the Yamuna have been unsuccessful. Over 600 million people use open defecation and most cities lack a drainage system. Not enough is being done to address the sanitation crisis the nation faces.

Most initiatives remain piecemeal and regional. There is no nationwide concrete plan to sort out the water issues be it in terms of agricultural reforms or urban planning.


IA-Forum: India has received a great deal of development assistance for water security from international organizations such as the World Bank, regional groups such as the Asia Development Bank, and countries (e.g., Japan). Results have been a mixed bag. How important is international aid for India’s water security and what can be done better to ensure internationally funded projects are successful?

Ms. Kataria: India has benefited from the international aid, technical know-how as well as assistance in implementation of water security projects. Such aid should grow in the future. But most foreign collaborators complain about the slow and somewhat corrupt bureaucratic machinery. Water is managed by an array of ministries and departments at the state and central levels. Some amount of streamlining with clearer lines of control and accountability is desirable.
Public mobilization around water issues should greatly help bring better political focus to the cause and all related projects.


IA-Forum: China has plans to construct at least 3 dams in the Tibet area. India claims they will affect the flow of the mighty Brahmaputra River into India. However, many experts say the dam proposals pose no immediate threat to India because they will not create large reservoirs. How can both countries work together to resolve the issue?

Ms. Kataria: China’s plans to construct dams on the Brahmaputra River have become a bone of contention between India and China of late. Given the lack of transparency about China’s plans India is concerned about its ambitions to horde water in lean seasons. China characteristically also does not have a water sharing arrangement with its lower riparian countries and India is no exception. Dialogue thus far has not yielded any results and India may have to seek some international or BRICS forum mediation to resolve this issue.

India's Water Woes

- Anuradha Kataria, 25 jan 2013

Published in the International Affairs Forum



Supporting a population base of over 1.2 billion people are India’s fragile river systems that are on the brink of, or perhaps already are, an ecological disaster. Contaminated with untreated industrial and human waste, in many places the rivers waters are considered unfit for bathing, leave alone drinking. To compound the problem further, India’s ground water is falling at an alarming level, in some places going down 1 – 3 meters a year. The World Bank has predicted that India’s ground water table may even dry up in 12 – 15 years time. Acute water shortage may cripple the bustling nation’s peace and progress in times to come. Yet there seems little focus in the media on such a critical issue and activism or initiatives around the cause seem at best marginal. There is a need to bring the issue to the forefront so that the underlying causes can be addressed, while there still is time. What could be done to make safe and plentiful water a reality for the common man?

In terms of falling ground water table, a problem indeed in most parts of the world today, a key reason is poor agricultural practices. India’s agriculture still depends upon small scattered farms producing traditional crops using ground water for irrigation. As per election freebees, water and power are given free to farmers and they have little incentive to conserve the precious resource. India underwent a green revolution a few decades back which led to spurt in agricultural output but not enough attention was paid to water conservation in terms of crops selection or irrigation practices. India now needs a blue revolution in its agriculture to bring about optimum use of water and that would mean changing cropping patters to suit the natural climate and rainfall as well as consolidation of farms to improve efficiency. So long as agriculture revolves around tiny farms, it is hard to educate individual farmers or effectively bring about a change. In the present scenario, farming is also a non remunerative business only providing bare minimum sustenance to the famers often resulting in large number of suicides in several regions. A cooperative movement may be the need of the hour to amalgamate farms such that larger farms may be able to use machinery as well as technical knowhow for better productivity and efficient use of natural resources like water. There have been some such cooperative movements in the past which have borne good results and can serve as a good model. However nowadays, the economic focus is mainly on the manufacturing and services industries while a core sector like agriculture has taken a back seat with little initiatives other than election time stunts like free power, loan waivers etc. Amidst such apathy, the ground water table keeps falling at an alarming rate yet hardly raises an alarm.

India’s water problem is not just quantitative but also qualitative; its rivers have got so contaminated by human and industrial waste that they are often referred to as sewers and drains rather than rivers. For instance, the great river Ganges at places has been recorded to have fecal coli form levels at 1,00,000 per 100 ml – the highest such figure on Earth rendering the water unfit for even bathing. Waterborne illnesses such as typhoid, dysentery, diarrhea, cholera, gastroenteritis etc., afflict millions of people dependent on the river. Like the Ganges, many other rivers are also considered sacred but are equally putrid and increasingly dermatologists and doctors advise against the “holy dip” which is customary during the festivals. The water is so polluted that it leads to several skin infections. Under pressure from the Supreme Court, some city water boards have plans for sewage treatment plants which will make the waters fit for bathing. But having spent millions already on many such projects, it is doubted that the water boards can deliver on even such a basic task of making the water fit just for bathing while they are yet to even set any milestones for water fit for drinking. Also the Board alone could not carry out this task as there seems little pressure on industries that pump gallons of hazardous waste into the river system. In some cities like Kanpur, small scattered tanneries dump tons of poisonous waste into the water daily. As the rivers course their way through the plains, they accumulate all the waste of humankind and achieve a level of filth downstream that is crying out for attention and action. While various administrative bodies claim to have spent millions of rupees in cleaning up these rivers, the money seems to have gone down the drain, quite literally. The problem yet remains on cleaning up the rivers whereas the solution should focus on ensuring untreated waste is not dumped into the rivers in the first place. There should be stringent laws and penalties on industries big and small as well as city water boards for polluting the rivers. However, the key problem remains lack of sufficient attention or public outcry on the important cause.

These problems afflict most other developing countries too where safe drinking water is a far cry. Likewise, water table drying up is a global problem affecting almost every nation in the world from China to Africa to Central plains of America. It might be of great significance if there were an international movement to save water. Cooperation and sharing of best practices among nations may give a boost to agricultural productivity as well as enable means of conserving ground water. Similar sharing of best practices may also help frame laws and enforce mechanisms to contain rivers pollution. In the developing world summits, which usually focus mostly on their economic stories, the radar should be shifted to human rights issues like water which should be treated as a priority. As things stand, access to safe and plentiful drinking water is a basic human need that remains unquenched for billions across the world.

Comments in Chronological order (1 total comments)

Mon, January 28, 2013 08:47 PM (about 106 hours ago)

Anuradha..well written article...kind of scared the c*** out of me ( forgive my language). More people should be reading these articles to become conscious of the problem and spread the awareness. Imagine, the water table drying up in just 15-20 years...it is scary.

Cyber Security - the Biggest Global Threat of our Time!

Published by The International Affairs Forum

Delhi hosted the 3rd Global Summit on Cyber Security in Oct 2012, which once again highlighted the complex security challenges that face the Cyber world. Advanced persistent threats (APT), Botnets, Hacktivists, Spies etc. are just among the daily headaches that put even top intelligence organizations to the test. But at least large organizations can afford to invest in cyber security solutions. Even more worrisome is the Norton 2012 Cybercrime report which states that 2 out of 3 adults online have been victims of cybercrime and each year the problem causes an estimated loss of about $ 110 billion. Every second, 18 adults become a victim of cybercrime with losses of an average $197 per victim annually. This yet does not take into account the emotional distress and dysfunction people suffer on account of cyber crime like hacking, information theft, invasion of privacy etc. Unlike large or even small organizations, individuals have rather limited access to any kind of advanced security solutions. The standard off the shelf security products have limited applicability and are not enough protection against even a slightly sophisticated attack. In countries like India, China etc. it is not easy to even register a cyber crime report and a response is almost unexpected. Furthermore, cyber criminals transcend boundaries, and international laws are inadequate to tackle the problem. As more and more of the world goes online in personal and professional sphere, cyber security is perhaps the number one challenge before the world yet we seem ill prepared to tackle it.

The Norton Cyber crime report for 2012 shows increased attacks in two areas as compared to 2011 – social networks and mobile networks. These are also the two areas where exciting new technological changes are happening everyday capturing more and more consumers. But as technological innovations are racing far ahead, the security systems seem to lag far behind. While most consumers seem aware of the new gizmos and apps being launched each day through mesmerizing ads, not enough are aware of the likely security threats or probable solutions. They rely on rudimentary knowledge making them easy targets for cyber criminals. They only seem to become aware once they have already become a victim. Awareness about security threats and probable solutions seems to be an issue at the individual level. Further, the technology business is no doubt driven by innovations which rake in the money but it would seem the security systems and innovations in those areas remain underinvested since they do not seem to be as lucrative an opportunity. Left to the private sector, this gap between galloping technology and lagging security systems is likely to remain or perhaps even widen. Unless a lot of awareness is generated about security issues and a lot more investment made into technological innovations in the cyber security area, this challenge will become a behemoth. At a larger level, the vulnerability of defense installations, transportation, power grids etc. to cyber attacks has always been a hot debate. Already some businesses and intelligence organizations have come to rely on paper records and safety vault systems for highly sensitive information. Could the severe lag on cyber security take us back to the paper and lock and key era?

Since hackers and other cyber criminals could be based in any country and launch an attack anywhere else, using already hacked systems, nabbing them would require a lot of trans-national cooperation. While there are summits and conferences - usually led by the industry, not much is being done at the government levels. Even international bodies like the UN are yet to get involved in this area and demand passing of international laws, leave alone seek cross country cooperation to enforce them. Lack of international cooperation thus remains another lacuna. To the contrary governments themselves are often involved in sponsoring spying and related hacking on other countries’ systems. The situation is worse in the developing world where even gruesome crime goes unpunished, so white collar cyber crime is unlikely to get any attention at all. A lot of attacks and spams originate from this part of the world where law enforcement remains a serious issue.

Given the alarming levels of cyber crime where 2 in 3 people online fall a victim to it, the apparent ignorance, grossly inadequate investment or innovations in security systems as well as weak law enforcement is even more worrisome. The problem plagues even top organizations like the FBI but they have a lot of resources at hand. However, it is often the individual or the common man who is most vulnerable to such attacks. They are often caught unawares and lacking access to any advanced help required to ward off the cyber crime or criminals, find themselves helpless in the face of it. Threatened cyber security and rising crime is perhaps staring the Technology horse in the mouth and could be its very nemesis. At the global level, the pan geographical origin of cyber attacks makes it a challenge very hard to tackle. At any rate, other than industry initiatives, not much is being done to raise the issue to the level of attention it deserves or requires. In a world relying more and more on technology, cyber security is the biggest global threat of our times yet it remains grossly under addressed at the international level and calls for greater focus and action.

Anuradha Kataria is an author and a consultant based in Delhi, India. She has published a book and editorials on the developing world issues. She also is a part of the growing statistic of 2 in 3 victims of cybercrime, having faced the hacking problem herself and seen the gaps in security systems or law enforcement process first hand.

Human Trafficking - the Untamable Epidemic

Published by The International Affairs Forum

 
25 Sept 2012, Anuradha Kataria

Gut wrenching stories abound in the media about victims of human trafficking especially women and girls who go down in a vortex of severe and repeated abuse – from which few are rescued and fewer still ever rehabilitated. The UN estimates that 2.4 million people across the globe are victims of human trafficking and about 80% are being exploited as sexual slaves. Only one out of every 100 victims is ever rescued given the criminal network surrounding it and it is nearly a $ 31 billion industry. While there is so much noise over it in the media, the crime seems far from abated, to the contrary is on the rise. Perhaps the focus is on the wrong end of the problem. While the international bodies and at times some of the Western governments like the US put pressure on the developing countries to frame laws to nab the culprits, there is little the latter end up doing given their dismal state of law enforcement. Perhaps there is a need to focus on the source areas which are typically remote and lacking in even basic awareness about the hazards of trafficking. There are some UN initiatives in this area but not enough. Further, poverty is often touted as the prime cause of trafficking but a lot of the urban poor are not trafficked. Poverty is no doubt a causal factor but the problem goes beyond that. Let us examine the issue in its complexity and ascertain a probable solution which the source countries “can” implement.

Delving into the mechanism, let us look at the story of Hamida (name changed), a Bangladeshi girl who was lured with the promise of a job by a family confidante, as is often the case, and trafficked into India when she was only 10 years old. Isolated from her base community, she suffered huge amount of abuse in an alien land where she could approach no one for help given also that she spoke a different language. Many of the alleged abusers were cops themselves. With some quirk of fate she was rescued and also helped by an evangelist Ms Roma Debabrata (who then started an NGO called STOP to curb trafficking in India). However, the justice system was long embroiled and grossly insensitive that became an even more traumatizing ordeal for her and ended predictably in a verdict that allowed most of her alleged tormentors to walk away scot free. And it could be argued that India is still a far better country than many others in the developing world! A key problem remains not in framing of laws, which are framed in abundance especially in a parliamentary system but in lack of law enforcement. More often than not, the police system is bought into the trafficking chain and the culprits are too many and in collusion whereas the victim alone. The justice system is long drawn with cases taking up to and over 10 years and often resulting in negligible conviction rates. The social attitudes towards women victims remain regressive marred by indifference, blame and ostracism. In such a callous legal –social environment, a victim is actually better off not fighting for justice as it is a system that is going to harass her more than it would the oppressors. Hamida’s tale is a telling “house of horrors” and typifies the treatment trafficking victims receive.

But quite apart from the sorry tales of victimhood and lack of justice, what is the root cause of the problem and how can it be addressed. The plight of the victims of trafficking is never ending given the emotional damage they suffer leaving them scarred, angry, temperamental and mistrustful and nearly impossible to adjust back into the society. Prevention is always better than cure but in the case of trafficking, the only way out; once a victim has fallen into the dungeon there is only one way to go which is down. It may yet be better to prevent trafficking by nipping it in the bud in the source areas - to ascertain how, let us examine the causes in depth. While poverty is at the root cause of trafficking, an interesting point Ms Roma Debabrata makes that even in urban slums there is a lot of poverty but the girls and women are not sold into trafficking. For instance a rickshaw puller in a city hardly makes a living but his daughters and wives are not sold into trafficking. Rooted in their communities, howsoever impoverished, they are not isolated and the community protects them somewhat. It is always some unsuspecting young girl or woman from a far flung remote area that is suddenly brought into an alien city that falls as easy prey to the monster. Alone and isolated from any kind of societal support system, the victims become vulnerable to repeated abuse as they are totally at the mercy of the pimp who brought them. A victim’s “Isolation” is the core mechanism that feeds the cycle of trafficking and victimization.

In the source areas, the causal factors that lure unsuspecting victims into the ring remain lack of employment opportunities as well as ignorance about trafficking hazards. There is awareness in the large cities given their exposure to the media but none in the source areas – which are largely remote and rural. People are not aware of the dangers of sending minor girls alone to far flung places in the hands of a supposedly trusted uncle or aunt who lures them with promises of a job and money. Once isolated from their community, these girls are easy to exploit and abuse. From a long term perspective, it is essential to spread development to rural areas but in the immediate term, it is crucial to run awareness campaigns on trafficking hazards in the source areas - using all media like TV, radio, cinemas and word of mouth through the local village bodies etc. People need to become aware that even in a village they may have little or no money but far flung cities are but mean destinations for girls/ women. There is a need for greater awareness about what kind of slavery and drudgery possibly awaits these girls as they are lured away by the idea of making some money. If the families were aware of the way the mechanism works, they are less likely to send young little girls in the hands of some distant relative who is pretending to be a well wisher. It may go to curb, not all, but much of the problem at its source.

So far as the law enforcement goes, it remains pathetic and no doubt needs a drastic shake up but in all likelihood, is unlikely to happen. However, taking employment opportunities to villages is a possible task but again has an unexpected rider in poor democracies. Apparently, the same rural folk who throng cities in search of jobs and live a wretched existence in urban slums, also oppose setting up of industries in rural areas. Often times the activists and opposition parties convince them that industry by itself is evil and will take away their rights and land. There is a need to educate first the activists and then the people about the fallacy in that logic. They need to be educated about the benefits of setting up industries in rural areas such that jobs go where people live and they don’t have to be uprooted from their environment to seek the oxymoronic heavens of urban slums in increasingly overcrowded large cities. Least of all, sending young girls alone to the “big bad cities” tantamount to a criminal act given the likely risks and hazards they are putting these girls into. Even in rural poverty they have a certain freedom, security and communal belonging which shield them from heinous crime and exploitation. So while the rhetoric of better law enforcement may continue, thus far it has not yielded any results. The problem can be nipped in the bud through intensive awareness campaigns in the source areas or else it becomes too big a menace to tackle given the present day law enforcement that exists in most of the third world and it could be said also in the first world when it comes to tackling an organized crime like this. The UN and other organizations have undertaken some initiatives along these lines but it needs greater focus. Targeting the source areas still needs to be developed as a full-fledged campaign and the core platform to tackle trafficking and perhaps should be the direction most countries should be pressurized into pursuing.

As is rightly said, freedom is priceless - all human beings deserve freedom and no one should have to undergo this form of heinous and repeated abuse that destroys their body, spirit and trust in fellow humans completely. That 2.4 million people are suffering such forms of slavery and exploitation in our ashamedly modern times, calls for greater focus and action and perhaps a different approach to curb the “yet growing” epidemic!

Impoverished to Ravenous – 21st Century China and Sustainable Development

Published in the International Affairs Forum
Anuradha Kataria, 19 July 2012

The just concluded RIO +20 Summit has received universal criticism in letting down the environment agenda set about 20 years ago, devolving into some sort of corporatization of the Green economy. While purported as the largest Earth summit with over 100 heads of states, the proceedings were marred by conflict and discord between developed and developing countries blocs as well as a general sense of unease over green economy goals being manipulated to cater to the markets rather than address genuine ecological concerns. Sustainable development, which in principle strives to achieve a fair, equitable, just and “green” economy alongside poverty alleviation remains elusive. In this backdrop, let us examine China that has spearheaded economic development in the developing world over the last few decades. On the one hand there are questions about the long term viability of its export oriented growth model and on the other its rapid industrialization’s impact on the environment as well as its progress on other parameters of development. What is unique about China’s industrialization story as compared to other developing countries given that even in the BRICS bloc, Chinese economy is equal to the other four put together. How is it faring on environmental standards and a question that is asked less often nowadays, what is its tryst with democracy?
Not too long ago China was an impoverished country in the news often for its violent Communist past and abysmal poverty. For quite some time, India and China were spoken of in the same breath due to their overwhelming population and poverty. The last decade however saw China’s stupendous rise to global power, based largely on its economic achievements. While still a part of the BRICS bloc, the Chinese economy leads the rest by miles and is equal to the balance four put together. Having become the world’s second largest economy, today China’s comparative benchmark has shifted to the US as both nations vie for economic, defense and political supremacy on the global front. Although China’s GDP is yet only $5.93 trillion, well short of the US at $14.6 trillion, the current decade will determine if the Chinese economy will plateau at this level, akin to Japan few decades back or really soar even further. Regardless of the predictions about its long term economic prospects, China’s rapid development and break from poverty is unprecedented where over 600 million people were delivered from abject poverty (defined as $1.25 per day) between 1981 and 2005. As the nation seems ever so ravenous for greater growth and power, let us trace China’s development history and assess how solid and sustainable is its current economic position as well as its progress on other parameters of development.
China underwent a tumultuous era under Mao Zedong led Communist revolution that was marked by violence, loss of millions of lives and yet none of the stated objectives of equality, poverty alleviation or economic development were achieved. Seeing the failure of the State command control socialist model, China started undertaking market oriented reforms starting in about 1978, pioneered initially by Deng Xiaoping. China took a cautious approach to market economy first establishing SEZs – Special Economic Zones in limited areas ear marked for this
experiment. Soon seeing the success of these zones, the model was scaled up and many more SEZs were established as well as expanded. This form of phased development allowed China to learn the ropes of the market economy unlike its Communist neighbor Russia that went through a shock therapy and ended up in a greater mess. Further, China did not adopt a pure market economy and that seems to have worked in its favor. One key difference was that the state invested heavily in infrastructure – be it roads, power grids or even public infrastructure. Given the long gestation period of infrastructure projects as well as marginal returns, it is not so lucrative to the private sector and state investment in the same accelerated China’s development. On the one hand good roads, public amenities, power supply etc. raise the standard of living for the common people and on the other, are a strong incentive for industries to set up shop.
In a relatively short span of time, China has become the “factory of the world”. Why are industries eager to set up shop in the developing world and in particular China? Because it is profitable and it is also relatively “hassle free”. It is profitable because the developing world offers production at much lower costs, be it goods or services. Given the global imbalance in labor and other costs, some of this economic leveling was inevitable in an increasingly open world. As the standard of living rises, these costs are going up in China but it may still continue to be a dominant export economy on account of two reasons. One, as already highlighted, is its outstanding infrastructure and two, Industries are offered a lot of sops and hassle free existence by the CPC. Inundated by lawsuits and stringent legal and regulatory framework in the Western developed world, industry has found itself a safe and comfortable haven in an industry friendly country like China.
Environmental degradation is the first challenge of China’s breathtaking industrialization, although that was also the case in Europe about two centuries back in the early stages of industrialization. Within the CPC also there is a divide over its pace of development and a rising awareness about what it is doing to the environment. This is certainly a challenge before the nation as China has become the lead country on Carbon emissions. In the just concluded Rio summit, once again the developing countries made a lot of noise over opposition to environment regulatory framework citing “poverty” as the reason which increasingly looks like an excuse. On every other parameter, the developing world today is assertive and demands an equal footing and gone are the days of Western imperialism. But at the same time, when it comes to an important cause of protecting the environment, developing world bloc likes to pull out the poverty badge. Poverty alleviation need not come at the expense of environment nor is environmental conservation a superfluous goal that can be addressed a century or so later. For instance, India is facing acute water shortage and the World Bank predicts that India’s ground water table would dry up in about 15 years time. What would that do the 1.2 billion (and counting) – how would the nation cope with this impending crisis and yet there is little debate or focus on the issue. Likewise China’s industrial belt’s environment is so polluted that there is a constant haze over its vast areas. It is hard to believe that people inhaling such toxicity would not develop any long term health hazards. Protecting the environment is not a “developed world agenda”; it affects the developing countries equally if not more.
Overall, it may be said here that life for an average citizen is still far better in China as compared to any developing country including the neighboring democracy, India, which remains mired in
rampant gender crimes, caste based oppression, lack of law enforcement and abysmal poverty etc. China seems to be higher on a societal development curve as compared to that. Apart from infrastructure, China continues to invest heavily in education, allocating as much as 6% of the GDP to it. Street crime is quite low in China and there is access to basic health care for the people. These are still a distant dream for most other developing countries. Up until China’s rise to an economic power, it was believed that democracy and free markets go hand in hand. In fact anytime IMF or World Bank moved to rescue yet another decrepit African nation, they would first urge democratic reforms before helping with market reforms. Initially when China started turning around, its success was doubted, touted as a flash in the pan, not sustainable etc. since it did not have democracy which was widely believed to be an important pre-requisite for development. But as China’s rise continued steadily through the 1990s and at an even more astounding pace in the 2000s, this assumption stands challenged.
Given China’s authoritarian model, its decision making as well as implementation is fast. What CPC says goes and China is no doubt a tight run ship. And it is this centralized structure that has enabled China to pull millions out of poverty in such a short span of time. This model has worked well in the last few decades especially for the masses given that it meets their basic needs of food, shelter, water, electricity, education and health care (no other developing country has been able to achieve this thus far). Further, for the older generation, China is far more open and liberal as compared to the past they have endured. But there is a generation next that has not seen that poor and oppressed China, is exposed to the world through the internet and is has its primal needs already met. This yet remains in a minority, mainly in the large cities but still, there is an awareness of basic rights and a desire to have a say. There also is a wealthy class that often finds itself victimized should they ever fall out of favor with the CPC. As China scales greater economic heights, it may not be able to ignore the higher order needs of this emergent class especially in a free world which is being revolutionized by internet and communication technology.
How those higher order needs can be met remains an enigma as clearly just a turn to democracy has not really worked in the developing world. For instance, Indian democracy is perhaps the most stable and evolved of democracies in the developing world. It no doubt has some benefits for the educated and well to do urban citizens who are relatively empowered, can buy private infrastructure and enjoy open and free debates and discussions etc. But six decades on, it is not clear if democracy works for the majority -70% of India remains doggedly rural and the poorest sections of the society suffer a lot of oppression, violence as well as lack of access to basic amenities like water, power or toilets. Life in urban slums is even more wretched and seemingly hopeless. Democracy in India benefits its minority of prosperous elites as it meets their higher order needs but fails to meet the basic needs of its vast and poor majority.
In contrast the Western world underwent tremendous social changes and awakening for centuries alongside its economic development. Voting rights too were extended gradually in tandem with the same and the end result has been astounding, current economic turmoil notwithstanding. A short cut to the end with universal voting rights without undergoing the necessary processes of social reforms has been the undoing of most developing world democracies which believed just granting voting rights to the populace enables an evolved and empowered society; far from it. Democracy has a totally different shape and form, mostly
subverted, in the developing countries and has failed to achieve a fair equitable or just society. China has not followed that path which perhaps has enabled its rapid development on the economic front. Despite its unitary political model, life of an average citizen is far better than anywhere else in the developing world. However, while China has raced far ahead of other developing countries, its entry into the developed world fold remains tinged with a lag on development along other socio-political and environmental dimensions.
China’s economic fundamentals seem strong given its high level of investments and an industry friendly (perhaps too friendly) environment. As an economic powerhouse, it is perhaps here to stay but can it transcend to a more evolved society now that its benchmark has shifted to the developed world, it is hard to say. Most critically, can China step up to setting some serious environmental goals and start delivering on them given the obvious environmental impact of its large industrial base. This is the real challenge before this ambitious nation that seems ravenous for greater economic growth but lagging on the sustainable development goals.

http://www.ia-forum.org/Files/SHHMZE.pdf