Overpopulation - the Forgotten Question

 

International Affairs Forum
 

August 2013

 

Even as the world population day approaches on 11 July 2013, the sea of humanity keeps expanding and 7 billion is an astounding number already. Driving many other species into extinction, mankind itself is at risk due to the bludgeoning numbers and lack of resources to support the same. Technological advancements in agriculture and medicine arrested the natural albeit painful processes of population control through famines, plagues and other diseases. But having extracted the world out of one kind of misery, it is yet sinking into another – that of overpopulation. It took mankind millennia to reach 1 billion in 1804 and more than another century to double by 1927. But in the age of speed that we live in, a billion is added almost every 13 – 14 years. Clearly natural resources as well as national provisions could not keep pace with such a calamitous increase in numbers and needs to be dealt with.

Defying the anthropological precept that the fittest breed the most, human population explosion is at the poorest end – in the developing nations particularly among the rural poor. In the developed world population is in decline actually creating other kinds of challenges like a large ageing and dependent strata but it is relatively easier to handle. If we look at rural households in the developing nations, population gallops on - children are seen as extra hands on the farm living space is not a constraint and people generally lead a destitute life. In such circumstances, they don’t care to plan their families or worry about children’s future which is expected to be the same as theirs. As urbanization takes a hold, living spaces are constrained as well as cost of living high but there is ample scope for employment opportunities. People start focusing on children’s education and have hopes for their future. With that they also start planning their families and 1 – 2 child families become the norm. So urbanization itself acts as a natural leveler. In the better off sections as also seen in the West, women start working and bigger families with many children comes in the way as they find it difficult to balance work pressure with home demands. Urbanization and modernization has also led to nuclear families such that natural child support systems are weakened considerably. These factors work as deterrents to having too many children.

Accounting for 37% of the world’s population, India and China remain the biggest culprits in the overpopulation game. Africa, though poorer is actually sparsely populated with population density lower than even Europe and the whole continent population barely adds up to a billion. Traditionally Asia has been the most populated continent and that is where the most efforts are required. At the extreme end of population control measures is China’s enforced one child policy where people are not allowed to have more than one child. This has been criticized on various counts primarily on its apparent interference with people’s freedom and choice. But being able to breed at will without the where-withal to provide for children may not be the right use of freedom either. The policy is also criticized for skewed sex ratio but to put figures to it, China’s sex ratio is 1.13 as compared to 1.12 for India – so both are similar and well over the world average of 1.07. Skewed sex ratio is not a result of population control programs but a deeply ingrained socio cultural ill that needs to be tackled through education and reforms. Rather, prosperity and education are likely to impact it more which indeed is better enabled if the population is limited.

Overpopulation compounds problems like poverty, illiteracy, inequality and violence. It also has put enormous burden on natural resources particularly water. It is often alleged that a rich nation like the US uses lot more resources than say the developing world. While they may leave a larger carbon footprint behind, consumption has its lifestyle benefits for the populace and so long as the nation is able to afford it, it is a lesser problem. But if one sees a developing nation, people do not have the means to live even a basic lifestyle and often live in congestion, filth and squalor. Lack of access to basic amenities like water, sanitation and exposure to diseases define the deprived existence of vast tracts of population which is ill able to afford such bludgeoning numbers. Also lack of basic infrastructure like a drainage system creates a sewage crisis that contaminates both soil and water.

While further population growth trends have been predicted and revised, somewhere it is assumed to be a natural statistical phenomenon with no need to actively check it. Just as food availability and medicines altered human life expectancy, we need to alter the explosion in population through scientific measures as well as social innovations and awareness programs. It can’t just be left to some sort of presumably ‘natural’ automatic sort of means. Given the proclivity of the poorest to breed more, poverty, deprivation and inequality will keep rising as also the stress on natural resources. It is debatable whether China’s one child policy is really such a draconian measure as it is made out to be. It clearly has been successful in checking its explosion. In countries where infant and child mortality and malnutrition is high as well as living conditions abysmal and dirty, producing unlimited number of kids into that environment is just as draconian, if not more. However all states may not wish to go the ‘China way’ but clearly there is a case to wake up and invest heavily in population control measures. If not coercive but at least persuasive campaigns and incentives based schemes need to be launched in an intense drive. The world population day could mark the beginning of such a trend in the developing world.

It is also time forums like the BRICS summit should get out of the nouveau riche zone of showcasing economic numbers and start facing up to these critical issues that affect this part of the world so deeply. Overpopulation is not a question that can be ignored any longer.

An Interview on Water Issues with IA - Forum

International Affairs Forum,

1 May 2013

International Affairs Forum: A recent report that McKinsey & Company helped to write predicted that India would need to double its water-generation capacity by the year 2030 to meet the demands of its growing population. A separate analysis concluded that groundwater supplies in many of India’s cities —including Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Chennai — are declining at such a rapid rate that they may run dry within a few years. What have been the difficulties and challenges in effectively managing water resources in rural as well as urban areas?

Anuradha Kataria: With unchecked population growth, the per capita availability of water is falling and declined by 15% in just the last decade.

The chief culprit is irrigation which uses up 80% of India’s fresh water supply. The government thus far has been preoccupied with increasing food production while the water issues stay neglected. The policy makers are yet to connect the dots between falling water supply and future food shortages. Some states have initiated reforms in cropping pattern, micro irrigation etc. which help improve water use efficiency by up to 35%. But many of these programs are hard to implement given the nature of small scattered farms which continue to rely on rudimentary practices. Larger cooperative farms may help serve the cause better but there are no substantial reforms or restructuring in the agriculture sector along these lines. The green revolution helped India improve its food yield - perhaps now it needs a blue revolution to bring about efficient use of its most precious resource - water.

In the urban areas, cities dump their human and industrial waste largely untreated into the rivers and streams making their waters unfit for drinking or even washing. This increases their reliance on ground water and the table is falling at an alarming rate. Urban planning and infrastructure has simply not kept pace with the economic growth.

It is not as if solutions to these problems are unknown but the political will and focus on water is lacking and is the key stumbling block.


IA-Forum: What impacts have water issues had on India’s development? Health issues?

Ms. Kataria: India grapples with a host of problems. In the federal structure, the States have authority over water projects and there are a lot of interstate conflicts on water sharing of rivers. Most dam projects have run into trouble with the activists. The drought prone areas tend to witness a lot of farmers’ suicides. Water pollution is another issue - contaminated rivers and ground water are a source of water borne diseases of which diarrhea alone claims 1600 children’s lives daily. Outbreaks of cholera, dysentery etc. are common among millions living on the banks of polluted rivers like the Ganges. All these problems affect the poorest sections of the society the most further worsening the already inequitable development.

Expected water scarcity coupled with food shortages and inter-state conflicts could potentially affect India’s stability in the next 10– 15 years.


IA-Forum: What steps are being taken to improve India’s water supplies and quality of water? (in rural as well as urban areas)?

Ms. Kataria: Some attention has been paid to augmenting urban and rural water supply since 2000, particularly in collaboration with companies from Japan, Germany etc. In the urban areas, Public private partnerships have focused on treatment facilities as well as reduction of Non revenue water in the form of water leakages or unbilled usage. A water desalination plant too has been setup with proposal for more in the coastal areas.
In rural India some of the World Bank aided watershed management projects have borne moderate results. They focus on restoring the ecological balance between soil, water and vegetation through participative community based initiatives.

While communal and even individual access to water supply has improved in urban and rural areas, water quality remains a cause for concern. Not much is being done about it and the vast sums allocated have either been wasted in poorly planned haphazard projects or lost to corruption.


IA-Forum: What effect has India’s current five year plan had on business investment for water supply and sanitation?

Ms. Kataria: India has been increasing its budget outlay for water resources. Over $1.1 trillion has been allocated towards the same in the current five year plan. Consistent efforts have improved access to water supply in both urban and rural areas. With hue and cry over India’s putrid rivers, some attention is also being paid to sewage treatment plants and even experimentation with waste to energy projects. But these ideas are yet to take off and efforts thus far to clean up rivers like the Yamuna have been unsuccessful. Over 600 million people use open defecation and most cities lack a drainage system. Not enough is being done to address the sanitation crisis the nation faces.

Most initiatives remain piecemeal and regional. There is no nationwide concrete plan to sort out the water issues be it in terms of agricultural reforms or urban planning.


IA-Forum: India has received a great deal of development assistance for water security from international organizations such as the World Bank, regional groups such as the Asia Development Bank, and countries (e.g., Japan). Results have been a mixed bag. How important is international aid for India’s water security and what can be done better to ensure internationally funded projects are successful?

Ms. Kataria: India has benefited from the international aid, technical know-how as well as assistance in implementation of water security projects. Such aid should grow in the future. But most foreign collaborators complain about the slow and somewhat corrupt bureaucratic machinery. Water is managed by an array of ministries and departments at the state and central levels. Some amount of streamlining with clearer lines of control and accountability is desirable.
Public mobilization around water issues should greatly help bring better political focus to the cause and all related projects.


IA-Forum: China has plans to construct at least 3 dams in the Tibet area. India claims they will affect the flow of the mighty Brahmaputra River into India. However, many experts say the dam proposals pose no immediate threat to India because they will not create large reservoirs. How can both countries work together to resolve the issue?

Ms. Kataria: China’s plans to construct dams on the Brahmaputra River have become a bone of contention between India and China of late. Given the lack of transparency about China’s plans India is concerned about its ambitions to horde water in lean seasons. China characteristically also does not have a water sharing arrangement with its lower riparian countries and India is no exception. Dialogue thus far has not yielded any results and India may have to seek some international or BRICS forum mediation to resolve this issue.

India's Water Woes

- Anuradha Kataria, 25 jan 2013

Published in the International Affairs Forum



Supporting a population base of over 1.2 billion people are India’s fragile river systems that are on the brink of, or perhaps already are, an ecological disaster. Contaminated with untreated industrial and human waste, in many places the rivers waters are considered unfit for bathing, leave alone drinking. To compound the problem further, India’s ground water is falling at an alarming level, in some places going down 1 – 3 meters a year. The World Bank has predicted that India’s ground water table may even dry up in 12 – 15 years time. Acute water shortage may cripple the bustling nation’s peace and progress in times to come. Yet there seems little focus in the media on such a critical issue and activism or initiatives around the cause seem at best marginal. There is a need to bring the issue to the forefront so that the underlying causes can be addressed, while there still is time. What could be done to make safe and plentiful water a reality for the common man?

In terms of falling ground water table, a problem indeed in most parts of the world today, a key reason is poor agricultural practices. India’s agriculture still depends upon small scattered farms producing traditional crops using ground water for irrigation. As per election freebees, water and power are given free to farmers and they have little incentive to conserve the precious resource. India underwent a green revolution a few decades back which led to spurt in agricultural output but not enough attention was paid to water conservation in terms of crops selection or irrigation practices. India now needs a blue revolution in its agriculture to bring about optimum use of water and that would mean changing cropping patters to suit the natural climate and rainfall as well as consolidation of farms to improve efficiency. So long as agriculture revolves around tiny farms, it is hard to educate individual farmers or effectively bring about a change. In the present scenario, farming is also a non remunerative business only providing bare minimum sustenance to the famers often resulting in large number of suicides in several regions. A cooperative movement may be the need of the hour to amalgamate farms such that larger farms may be able to use machinery as well as technical knowhow for better productivity and efficient use of natural resources like water. There have been some such cooperative movements in the past which have borne good results and can serve as a good model. However nowadays, the economic focus is mainly on the manufacturing and services industries while a core sector like agriculture has taken a back seat with little initiatives other than election time stunts like free power, loan waivers etc. Amidst such apathy, the ground water table keeps falling at an alarming rate yet hardly raises an alarm.

India’s water problem is not just quantitative but also qualitative; its rivers have got so contaminated by human and industrial waste that they are often referred to as sewers and drains rather than rivers. For instance, the great river Ganges at places has been recorded to have fecal coli form levels at 1,00,000 per 100 ml – the highest such figure on Earth rendering the water unfit for even bathing. Waterborne illnesses such as typhoid, dysentery, diarrhea, cholera, gastroenteritis etc., afflict millions of people dependent on the river. Like the Ganges, many other rivers are also considered sacred but are equally putrid and increasingly dermatologists and doctors advise against the “holy dip” which is customary during the festivals. The water is so polluted that it leads to several skin infections. Under pressure from the Supreme Court, some city water boards have plans for sewage treatment plants which will make the waters fit for bathing. But having spent millions already on many such projects, it is doubted that the water boards can deliver on even such a basic task of making the water fit just for bathing while they are yet to even set any milestones for water fit for drinking. Also the Board alone could not carry out this task as there seems little pressure on industries that pump gallons of hazardous waste into the river system. In some cities like Kanpur, small scattered tanneries dump tons of poisonous waste into the water daily. As the rivers course their way through the plains, they accumulate all the waste of humankind and achieve a level of filth downstream that is crying out for attention and action. While various administrative bodies claim to have spent millions of rupees in cleaning up these rivers, the money seems to have gone down the drain, quite literally. The problem yet remains on cleaning up the rivers whereas the solution should focus on ensuring untreated waste is not dumped into the rivers in the first place. There should be stringent laws and penalties on industries big and small as well as city water boards for polluting the rivers. However, the key problem remains lack of sufficient attention or public outcry on the important cause.

These problems afflict most other developing countries too where safe drinking water is a far cry. Likewise, water table drying up is a global problem affecting almost every nation in the world from China to Africa to Central plains of America. It might be of great significance if there were an international movement to save water. Cooperation and sharing of best practices among nations may give a boost to agricultural productivity as well as enable means of conserving ground water. Similar sharing of best practices may also help frame laws and enforce mechanisms to contain rivers pollution. In the developing world summits, which usually focus mostly on their economic stories, the radar should be shifted to human rights issues like water which should be treated as a priority. As things stand, access to safe and plentiful drinking water is a basic human need that remains unquenched for billions across the world.

Comments in Chronological order (1 total comments)

Mon, January 28, 2013 08:47 PM (about 106 hours ago)

Anuradha..well written article...kind of scared the c*** out of me ( forgive my language). More people should be reading these articles to become conscious of the problem and spread the awareness. Imagine, the water table drying up in just 15-20 years...it is scary.